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Modi’s Drive East
Subir Bhaumik Former BBC Correspondent
Modi’s Drive East
PHOTO : PM Modi visiting Assam during Lok Sabha Poll Campaigning

From Mamata Banerji in West Bengal to Manik Sarkar in tiny Tripura, not to speak of Assam’s hatrick chief minister Tarun Gogoi, a host of regional chieftains are under fire in the East . This could make the BJP’s task of penetrating the region much easier than what many would imagine. The saffrons don’t have a a strong organization in most of the Eastern and northeastern states but the fact that they are only party who people have not seen in power in these states . So they can well swing the electorate their way by playing on the simple argument – ‘you have seen all the rest and see how miserable they are, so please give us a chance’.

Back in West Bengal, a beleaguered Mamata Banerji is mobilizing all her big guns to fight the BJP challenge in the Bowbazar assembly bypolls , even as BJP president Amit Shah launched a no-holds barred attack on the Bengal tigress . And this on a day after Mamata’s one-time blue-eyed boy and suspended Trinamul MP Kunal Ghosh had directly implicated her Didi in the Saradha Scam. Ghosh shouted to waiting reporters on Saturday that the biggest beneficiary on the scam was Mamata herself and CBI should interrogate him and Saradha chief Sudipta Sen in presence of Mamata Banerji. And Kunal’s tirade comes a day after businessman Asif Khan attacked ‘quick rich’Trinamul leaders in the strongest terms, saying that many of them who could not afford two square meals a day are now worth a few hundred crores each. Asif has been close to Trinamul general secretary Mukul Roy – so his fusillade cannot be wished away, if for the sheer damage to the party’s image it has caused.

In far off Tripura, within a few weeks of many projecting Manik Sarkar as a future general secretary of the CPI(M), the Chief minister’s spotless image stands sullied . Local media has extensively reported a scam involving diversion of RMSA central funds meant for improving school education infrastructure to bulk purchase Sarkar’s recollections ‘Atit Diner Smriti’ and a compilation by his former chief secretary Sanjoy Kumar Panda. Questions have been raised about royalty gains and  use of influence to promote a personality cult. On Friday, Sept 5, 2014 a FIR was lodged by joint director Manabendra Chakraborty against the RMSA cashier Arnab Chakraborty. The complaint accused the cashier of withdrawing Rs 11.72 lakh from Tripura State Cooperative Bank using forged signatures. The Opposition is up in arms , seeking a CBI enquiry into a much larger scam involving diversion of central funds in Tripura’s school education department. Attempts to suppress the scam by a hasty suspension of a mid-ranking official has further complicated issues . The former Chief Secretary has further complicated matters by writing to a local website www.tripurainfoway.com , which first broke the story because his long letter does not answer the key question – how could Central funds be used for purchasing books written by the Chief Minister and the Chief Secretary, as it was clearly beyond the purview of the guidelines for use of such funds from the Centre. The website management allege they have received messages to stop coverage of Tripura politics , pointing to a possible strong arm response from the Marxists even as they blame Mamata for using such tactics.

Up in Assam, which goes to state polls like Bengal in 2016, the ruling Congress is in real bad shape. Hatrick chief minister Tarun Gogoi, who has brought the Congress to power a record third successive time in 2011, faces a powerful dissident movement led by his one time lieutenant Himanta Biswa Sarma. Though Sarma has largely failed to convince the High Command that he is capable of garnering enough legislative support --  and more importantly provide a credible alternative to Gogoi in the rundown to the 2016 polls – his efforts to discredit Gogoi has damaged the party substantially. The recent flare=up on the Assam-Nagaland border only proved Gogoi is losing his grip and the Home Ministry added fuel to fire alleging that Congress dissidents out to discredit Gogoi had fanned the public angst on the border.

The BJP bagged 7 of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats in this year’s Lok Sabha polls. Amit Shah reckons the party’s best chance to come to power in the Northeast lies in Assam with a ‘little more push’. The party can use the illegal migration issue to great advantage , though it risks flare-ups like the 2012 riots in western Assam. In Bengal, despite its only two seats in Lok Sabha, the BJP can boast of the 17 percent voteshare which on its own may not get them to power but surely can make them the largest Opposition bloc in the state assembly. No mean achievement considering the past performance of Hindutva parties in Bengal , but the feeling in saffron circles is that only if they can resist rigging and terror likely to be unleashed by the Trinamul Congress, they can do the impossible by winning Bengal for Modi. That is only possible when a party has a credible organization which the likes of Amit Shah are capable of building but may not have enough time and support to develop before 2016. All said and done, the BJP which was a lame duck in the East and Northeast (with exception of some parts of Assam) have suddenly emerged as an option for the electorate because the Congress, Trinamul and the Left have miserably failed at governance. At the end of the day, for the men and women in the streets, that is what that matters.
 

(Mr. Subir Bhaumik is a veteran journalist, former BBC correspondant and author of  two well acclaimed books ‘Insurgent Crossfire’ and ‘Troubled Periphery’) 

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