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INDIA KEY TO ASIAN BALANCE
Subir Bhaumik Former BBC Correspondent
INDIA KEY TO ASIAN BALANCE
PHOTO : TIWN

Geo-strategist Parag Khanna , whose 'Second World' is a hit, has predicted India will never be a Super Power like China or US . Besides many other reasons he offers, the crucial is India and its leaders fail to think big. Modi may have promised a change in that attitude but India is not looking to get out of the pit of 'small thinking'. Until that changes, we wont take our rightful place in comity of nations.

With its vast multitude of domestic problems, India is far from able to play big on world stage. Besides separatist insurgencies in Kashmir and the northeast, it is now trying to contain a growing Maoist insurgency — with only limited success so far. 

Though India may have overtaken Japan as the third largest economy in the world, growth has slowed down. Its infrastructure remains poor and its politics torn asunder by corruption, factional feuds in major parties, with little hope for stability from the inevitable coalitions positioned for power.

Its aspiration for a permanent UN Security Council seat is still a bridge too far. And from Kargil 1999 to Mumbai 26/11 to Uttarakhand now, India's reaction to any crisis, natural or man-made, still reeks of Third World inefficiency. 

Why is it then that India is so sought after by major powers in Asia and elsewhere? Parag Khanna had described India as a 'swing state', meaning it may not be a major power in its own right but is capable of swinging the balance of power, surely in Asia and perhaps in the global context. 

Which is perhaps why China and those arrayed against it are seeking India on its side. Both Japan and Australia are seeking to strengthen their military, especially naval, ties with India through regular exercises and exchanges. 

The US sees India, secretary of state John Kerry said during his recent Delhi visit, as the "key to President Obama's Asia rebalancing". Joining the Indo-US strategic dialogue, Kerry appeared keen to placate India on its post-2014 concerns over Afghanistan, promising US efforts to involve the Taliban in the Afghan reconciliation process only if they fulfilled key conditions like delinking from al-Qaida and backing off from terrorism. 

The US is now seeking to come up with commercial treaties and defreeze nuclear ties, all to ensure Indian support for Obama's 'Asia pivot'. 

Last May , Chinese premier Li Keqiang visited India immediately after the Depsang bulge confrontation. Li's confidence in India — "We are friends and don't need to contain each other" — was significant. It was evident Li was wooing India to keep it out of any anti-China bloc. 

India has decided to stick to its non-alignment era policy of staying away from multilateral military alliances, but retains its options to develop bilateral defence ties with those seeking it. This is smart diplomacy and seeks to make the most of being sought after by the key players in Asia's new security and economic architecture. Modi is treading a careful line between China and Japan , seeking to woo both for its investment and technology potential.

If diplomacy and foreign policy are to further core national goals of security and economic growth, India stands to gain by playing it simultaneously with both China and those seeking to contain its ever-growing influence and assertiveness. 

With China and Russia, it retains the option to play a larger global role through Brics and even build a strong Sino-Indian trading bloc with the option of adding neighbours like Bangladesh and Myanmar through regional groupings like the BCIM. With Japan, Australia and the US, it can seek to maintain strategic options if nothing goes well with China. Through BIMSTEC, it can develop a strong Bay of Bengal initiative and play into the Asean without China in the grouping — something New Delhi seems to be pushing now. 

Since it is much sought after, especially in Asia, both by China and by Japan, the US, Australia and the Asean to counterbalance Beijing, India holds the key to Asian peace and power balance. All it needs is an effective government in New Delhi backed by a dynamic foreign office which can use the enormous opportunities to play the role of a bridge and hold the white flag in Asia's volatile waters, that will ultimately justify her claim to a permanent place in the Security Council.  It is upto Modi9 to fulfil the promise, because it he fails on that after such a huge mandate, he will not excuse to hide behind. 

India may well consider playing a bridge between China and Japan and other warring Asian powers , as the regular mediator in Asian disputes , to keep out Western powers with their history of imperialism and divide-and-rule. Our soldiers fought to keep the British empire up and running for 250 years. We should not be doing that for another 200 years for Pax Americana. 

In a way, as the land of Gandhi which promotes the Panchsheel values, India should play the fix between warring Asian nations and make good the promise of the 21st as the Asian century.

 

(Mr. Subir Bhaumik is a veteran journalist, former BBC correspondant and author of  two well acclaimed books ‘Insurgent Crossfire’ and ‘Troubled Periphery’) 

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