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Tripura Election 2018: The “Much talked” Opinion Poll
Sagarneel Sinha
Tripura Election 2018: The “Much talked” Opinion Poll
PHOTO : Election rally in Agartala. TIWN Pic

The political temperatures are rising day by day in the state with the nearing of the crucial election day. Then came an opinion poll conducted by a media platform in tie-ups with a local and a national news channel. This opinion poll created a storm in the state politics because it predicted BJP's victory ending the 25 years of CPM led Left's rule in the state. This poll brought smiles to the faces of saffron leaders and anti-Left supporters who are longing for the end of the Marxist rule. On the other hand, for the communists who are currently facing the heat of the saffron forces and are leaving no stone unturned to save their “red” citadel,this opinion poll acted as a thorn on the political road. The opinion poll became the “talk of the town”, though there are some questions regarding it.

Before going into deep analysis of the opinion poll, let's have a look on the prediction of seats. The seat prediction is that BJP+IPFT alliance is going to win 31—37 seats and the CPM led Left alliance is projected to win 23-29 seats. Congress and the others are projected to get zero seat. The media platform even predicted number of seats to be won based on districts. However, there are no predictions about the voteshares of the parties. This is really a different opinion poll, as all of them always show the projected voteshares of the contesting parties.

However, the poll talked about voteshare based on ethnicity for the BJP alliance and the Left Front. According to the prediction, BJP+IPFT will receive 54% of Bengali votes and the Left would take away the rest 46%! On the other hand BJP+IPFT will be getting 56% of Tribal votes and the Left will be getting 42%! This figures clearly point some scientific errors! The poll says that all the Bengali votes will be going to the BJP alliance and the Left (54+46=100). How can it be possible? There are other parties including the Congress, Independents and the most popular NOTA. Even in the last election, the combined vote share of the Left Front and the Congress alliance stood at 96% . The other 4% were votes of BJP, SUCI(C), Amara Bangali, CPI(ML) and Independents (NOTA was not introduced then). If one looks at the current voting pattern across the country, one would definitely notice the rising impact of NOTA(None of the Above) votes. In the recent Gujarat elections, around 5.5 lakh voters went with NOTA option  rejecting all the candidates and the percentage of NOTA votes stood at 1.8% which was higher than that of BSP and NCP. In around 30 seats of Gujarat, the winning margin was less than that of the NOTA votes! That's why saying that 100% Bengali votes going only to the BJP alliance and the Left Front is totally irrational as there are 24 candidates of Amara Bangali, a Bengali ethnic party which always does pull some Bengali votes and how can any one  forget the Congress which still has a base in the Bengali dominated areas.

Also, if one looks the projection of tribal votes, the opinion poll suggests that 98% (56+42=98) going to the Left and the BJP alliance.(Here, they didn't predict 100% ,leaving 2% for others!). This also seems less possible. INPT, though weak still commands around 5-8% tribal votes. In the last ADC election 2015 , INPT contesting alone cornered around 10% votes. INPT which is contesting on 15 seats has stitched an alliance with the two minor parties,  NCT and the Trinamool Congress. Congress party which is contesting all the 20 ST seats still commands around 2-3% votes. Also, in the fray is another separatist party (apart from IPFT(NC)) TSP, which is contesting on 10 seats with the demand of separate Tipraland and there also remains the option of NOTA. So saying that only 2% of the tribal votes will be received by the others seems rather impossible.

Another, important fact that the opinion poll suggested is that the “majority of the tribals are supporting Tipraland”! If this is true then how can the BJP+IPFT(NC) alliance get 56% of tribal votes? If one assumes that such voters would vote only for IPFT(NC), then what about the BJP candidates contesting in the majority of the ST seats — 11. BJP has already clearly stated that the demand of Tipraland is not feasible and they support strongly for United Tripura. Then why the tribals, majority of whom are assumed to be Tipraland supporters vote for the BJP? It means that one of the projection is wrong - either the majority of the tribals voting for the BJP don’t support Tipraland or if they support then a large number may not vote for the BJP! There is a possibility of some of the minor Tipraland supporters may end opting for the other separatist party TSP or the NOTA. Some may even choose to stay at home which would only harm the BJP's alliance partner IPFT(NC) which secured the faith of its supporters only due to the demand of separate Tipraland!

Despite all of this, the victory of BJP+IPFT(NC) alliance seems possible where the alliance is projected to get 31-37 seats by the opinion poll. But it doesn't mean that CPM led Left Front is completely out of the scene. CPM is already ahead in the campaigning and there are chances of the Left Front winning around 33-39 seats. ( Let the names of the local and the national news channels along with the media conducting the opinion poll stay unnamed and the point to be noted is that some major local newspapers and wires didn’t give much weightage to this “much talked” opinion poll! ).

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