Mumbai, May 7 (TIWN) A high base and an unseasonal drop in some food prices will push CPI inflation down to 4.0 per cent in April, Barclays said in a research report on Friday.

“We expect CPI inflation to fall to 4.04 per cent y/y in April, below the January low and down from 5.5 per cent in March. The drop in inflation will be driven primarily by two factors – a high base owing to last year’s pandemic-related lockdown, and an unseasonal fall in some food prices,” Barclays said.  This year, despite the new restrictions, supply chains have not broken down to the same extent as 2020 and hence the effect on perishable prices has been opposite, with reduced traffic in stores causing prices to fall.  Looking at the details, the investment banker said it expect food prices to rise 0.1 per cent m/m, which is significantly below the seasonal trend typically seen in the lean season before sowing.  Prices for cereals, vegetables and dairy products remain in check and are offsetting the increase in prices of non-perishable items, such as cooking oil, pulses and prepared foods.